Projections & Monte Carlo

Build your first plan

Create a plan, set the basic assumptions, and watch the projection chart populate. The minimum you need to make the Plan section useful.

Comparing scenarios across plans

Save multiple plans, line them up in the Compare tab, and see what changes when you push the FIRE date or shift the asset mix.

How Monte Carlo works in Haven

What the Chance of Success number means, where it comes from, and how to act on it.

Milestones and the timeline

How milestone chips work in the Plan header — what 'achieved' versus 'projected' means, and how to read them on the age scrubber.

Monte Carlo trial counts by tier

Why the default 1,000 trials is enough for the success number, and when raising to 10,000 on Pro is worth it.

Parametric vs. Historical data sources

What the Data Source toggle does — Parametric draws from a smooth normal distribution fit to each dataset, Historical resamples actual past years.

The twelve Plan tabs, in one page

What every tab in the Plan does, when to look at it, and which ones unlock with Family or Pro.

Tiles vs. Flow: reading the right panel

The Plan's right panel switches between Tiles (key metrics at a moment) and Flow (where each dollar goes that year). When to use each.

Which historical dataset should I pick?

How to choose the equity and bond return datasets that drive Chance of Success — pick the one that matches what you actually hold.